OTREC-RR-11-25

OTREC-RR-11-25US vehicle miles traveled (VMT) tend to trend up with gross domestic product (GDP) and personal income. While conventional wisdom suggests that economic growth spurs higher VMT, the reverse is possible. If causation is from VMT to GDP, legislation intended to reduce VMT could adversely impact economic activity. This study examines causality between VMT and economic activity. In most cases the causal relationship is from economic activity to VMT. GDP

US vehicle miles traveled (VMT) tend to trend up with gross domestic product (GDP) and personal income. While conventional wisdom suggests that economic growth spurs higher VMT, the reverse is possible. If causation is from VMT to GDP, legislation intended to reduce VMT could adversely impact economic activity.
This study examines causality between VMT and economic activity. In most cases the causal relationship is from economic activity to VMT. GDP leads VMT in economic upturns or normal times, but VMT tends to lead GDP recessions.
We analyzed the relationship between VMT and economic activity on a smaller level to determine where adverse policy impacts may exist and what changes could mitigate those impacts. Factors significantly contributing to VMT included lane miles, personal income, population density, fuel cost, transit use, and employment distribution. Transit use and population density negatively impact VMTPC and per capita VMT is higher in the west and in large urban areas.